Meeting the 2050 Aviation Target

The Committee has developed three scenarios for future aviation emissions.

These combine different assumptions about rates of change in respect to modal shift (to rail), video-conferencing, technological improvements that can be made to planes, and biofuels.

Likely scenario: this is based on the demand reductions and carbon intensity reductions likely to be achieved given current policies, investment levels and the current pace of technological advance.
Optimistic scenario: This would require both: – A significant shift from current policy (e.g. in respect to high-speed rail), and an increase in the level of investment in new aircraft technologies and / or in the pace of fleet renewal as well as improvements in Air Traffic Movements and operations so as to make a 1.0% per annum improvement in carbon efficiency attainable. Progress of biofuel technologies which would make it reasonable to assume that a 20% penetration was compatible with sustainability.
Speculative scenario: This would require both technological breakthroughs and a significant increase in the pace of aircraft fuel efficiency improvements. In addition, it would require the development of sustainable biofuels which are currently speculative (e.g. biofuels from algae), or an evolution of global population, food demand and agricultural productivity which would make possible the sustainable and large scale use of current agricultural land and water to grow biofuel feedstocks. These developments are assessed today as very unlikely.

Committee on Climate Change

Independent advice to Government on building a low-carbon economy

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Meeting the 2050 Aviation Target

Adaptation Sub Committee

Audio & Video

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