Around half of the UK adult population currently travels by plane each year. Since 1990, the number of passengers taking flights has increased by 130%, from 104 million passengers to 238 million today.

This increase in demand has been driven by two main factors:

• An increase in average incomes of 54% which means that more people can afford to fly
• A reduction in fares on flights – these have fallen by around 50% between 1997 and 2006.

Demand has grown across all types of air travel since 1990, with the largest growth area being in leisure travel, as the number of people flying abroad on holiday has increased.


Increase in demand (passengers per year between 1990 and 2007):

• Short-haul - increase of 128% (from 82 million to 187 million).
• Long-haul – increase of 133% (from 22 million to 51 million).
• Leisure - increase of 185% (from 63 million to 180 million).
• Business - increase of 70% (from 35 million to 60 million).

UK aviation demand since 1990

Source: CAA (2009

Higher income groups fly more on average than lower income groups.  Among those who fly, UK taxpayers on incomes of more than £60,000 per year flying on average just under four times per year, and those on less than £20,000 flying two times per year.

UK air travel by income group
























Source: DfT (2008) and HMRC (2008)

The Committee projects that growth in incomes of 150% to 2050 could drive:

• Demand growth of over 200% in 2050 relative to 2005 levels (i.e. from 230 million passengers to 695 million passengers annually) with no runway capacity constraints and no carbon price.
• Demand growth of 150% by 2050 relative to 2005 levels (i.e. from 230 million passengers to 570 passengers annually) with runway capacity at levels envisaged in the 2003 Air Transport White Paper (i.e. with new capacity at Edinburgh, Heathrow and Stansted) and no carbon price.
• Demand growth of 115% relative to 2005 levels (i.e. from 230 million passengers to 490 million passengers annually) with runway capacity at levels envisaged in the Air Transport White Paper and under a central case carbon price (i.e. rising to £200/tCO₂ in 2050).

Source: CCC modelling